Modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic:

The CoSMo group is modeling and analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic. Our preprints are posted here:

December 9 2020: Estimation of years of life lost by Sweden’s relaxed COVID-19 mitigation strategy

November 24 2020: Intervention fatigue is the primary cause of strong secondary waves in the COVID-19 pandemic

August 6 2020: A parsimonious description and cross-country analysis of COVID-19 epidemic curves

May 22 2020: Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic



The research group is a collaboration between the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and the Department of Physics and Technology at UiT – The Arctic University of Norway. The study of complex systems regards collective, or system-wide, behaviors as the fundamental object of study. For this reason, we can understand complex systems modeling as an alternative paradigm to reductionism. It has led to the development of a range of new methodologies for analysis, modeling, and computation. These methodologies are essential in fields such as systems biology, ecology, computational and statistical epidemiology, brain dynamics, fluid dynamics and plasma physics, nanoscience, climate and geoscience, social systems, and economic dynamics. They include conceptual mathematical and statistical models, multi-scale methods, as well as general mathematical concepts such as symmetry, invariance, and stability. Among the tools developed to describe emergent phenomena are the theories of chaos, turbulence, and fractal geometry. The CoSMo research group aims to carry out world-leading research in complex systems modeling, as well as supporting other excellent UiT groups within the fields of physics, geoscience, ecology, biology, economics, social science, and medicine.

News from the group

The @UiTromso will fund the Aurora Center for Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems Modeling (DYNAMO). The center will focus on climate science, ecology, and fusion energy. Congratulations to project manager Odd Erik Garcia and the rest of the team!

Audun Theodorsen is awarded the TFS Starting Grant! Congratulations! The project studies large and sudden fluctuations that can occur in various physical systems. It focuses on four cases: turbulence near the walls in fusion reactors, cosmic dust in the interplanetary media, the contribution of volcanic activity to temperature variability, and transport of polluting aerosols in the atmosphere. The TFS grant is 12 MNOK and the project runs from 2020 to 2023. Read more here.

Audun Theodorsen is awarded the TFS Starting Grant for his project Intermittent fluctuations in physical systems.
Scientists in the TiPES project outside the Institut Henri Poincaré in Paris

Successful kickoff for the @TiPES_H2020 project. Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES) had its kickoff meeting at the Institut Henri Poincaré in Paris in October. The CoSMo group was represented by Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Martin Rypdal, and Kristoffer Rypdal.

Tuomas IIkka Henrikki Heiskanen wins prize. His master thesis on «On Atmospheric Energy Transport by Waves» was considered to be the best master thesis at the Faculty of Science and Technology in 2019. Tuomas will continue as a PhD student in our group. Read more here (in Norwegian) Congratulations!

Breakthrough in Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreaks. Researchers in the Complex Systems Modelling group at UiT and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego have made a breakthrough in predicting outbreaks of viral infections such as dengue and influenza. Read more about the work here. (And in Norwegian here and here)

Scientists Announce TiPES Project. UiT, through the Complex Systems Modelling group, is a node in the new European project Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES). The project is coordinated by Niklas Boers and Peter Ditlevsen. Read more about the project here.

Norwegian scientists reject conclusions of British study on climate sensitivity. Work in the Complex Systems Modelling group challenges the conclusions of a recent highly-profiled study. Read more here (in Norwegian).

Tine Nilsen receives prestigious RCN grant. The project «Bridging the gap between the terrestrial and marine paleoclimate reconstructions» has earned her a postdoc grant with a two-year stay in Germany, before completing the third year in Tromsø. Congratulations!

CoSMo group contributes to new understanding of Kawasaki’s disease. Researchers from UiT have collaborated with the a group at University of California San Diego to uncover a link between atmospheric conditions and high-incidence clusters of Kawasaki’s disease. Read more here.

Rune Graversen leads new project. The project entitled «The role of the atmospheric energy transport in recent Arctic climate change» was one of the 5 out of 89 successful proposals in the highly competitive KLIMAFORSK program of the RCN. Congratulations!

Audun Theodorsen wins prize. His work on stochastic modelling of fluctuations in the Tokamak a Configuration Variable experiment earned him the Martin Landrø’s prize for excellent master thesis in physics. Read more here (in Norwegian) Congratulations!

Odd Erik Garcia receives prestigious RCN grant. This year, the project «Turbulence and transport at the boundary of fusion plasmas» was the Faculty’s only successful proposal to RCN’s FRINATEK or FRIMEDBIO. Congratulations!