{"id":877,"date":"2015-06-10T08:54:08","date_gmt":"2015-06-10T06:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/?page_id=877"},"modified":"2022-04-26T11:11:27","modified_gmt":"2022-04-26T09:11:27","slug":"summary-and-forecast","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/data-and-products\/geomagnetic-conditions\/summary-and-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Summary and Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"responsive-tabs\">\n<h2 class=\"tabtitle\">Geomagnetic Summary and Forecast<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tabcontent\">\n\n\t<script>\n\t    setInterval(function()\n        {\n            if(document.hasFocus()){\n               d = new Date();\n               image = jQuery('img#image_autorefresh_wcAvMk8BDE');\n               if(image.data(\"query\") == ''){\n\t               image.attr(\"src\", image.data(\"src\") + \"?\" + d.getTime());\n               }else{\n\t               image.attr(\"src\", image.data(\"src\") + \"?\" + d.getTime() + \"&\" + image.data(\"query\"));\n               }    \n            }\n        }, 60000);\n\n\t<\/script>\n\n\t<div class=\"aligncenter\">\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/spaceweather2.uit.no\/noswe\/pics\/Geomagnetic.png\" \n\t\t data-src=\"https:\/\/spaceweather2.uit.no\/noswe\/pics\/Geomagnetic.png\"\n\t     data-query=\"\"\n\t     alt=\"\"\t\n\t     class=\"image_autorefresh\" \n\t     id=\"image_autorefresh_wcAvMk8BDE\"\n\t     data-refresh=\"60\"\n\t     \t     \t     >\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n\n<\/div><h2 class=\"tabtitle\">Map<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tabcontent\">\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2746\" src=\"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"952\" height=\"951\" srcset=\"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled.png 952w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-768x767.png 768w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-432x432.png 432w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-268x268.png 268w, https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/194\/2018\/02\/untitled-700x699.png 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 952px) 100vw, 952px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n\n<\/div><h2 class=\"tabtitle\">Information<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tabcontent\">\n\nThe Local Geomagnetic overview and 1 hour forecast is based on the the method developed by Watermann and Gleisner described in DMI Technical Report 06-18 (Geomagnetic Activity Forecast Service (GAFS) Final Project Report Vol. 1).<\/p>\n<p>The method uses time shifted solar wind data (IMF and velocity) from DISCOVR satellite at L1 as input. A linear prediction filter with 5 coefficients is applied to, based on the solar wind data, predict geomagnetic variations at a set of selected ground magnetometer stations; Ny-\u00c5lesund, Troms\u00f8 and Domb\u00e5s as indicated on the map.<\/p>\n<p>Note: <em>The prediction fails or looses accuracy for disturbances not directly driven by the solar wind, such as substorms.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">Disturbance levels are based on the measured deviation in the Horizontal North (X) component -Rx:<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align: center;font-weight: bold;margin-bottom: 0px\">Ny-\u00c5lesund<\/h4>\n<table style=\"width: 705px;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 18px;height: 235px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Colour<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Description<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Physical Measure<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Threshold<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#228B22\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"30%\">Quiet<\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\">K&lt;3<\/td>\n<td width=\"40%\">Rx &lt; 95 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CBE90C\"><\/td>\n<td>Disturbed<\/td>\n<td>K \u2053 3-4<\/td>\n<td>\u00a095 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 160 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#F6EB14\"><\/td>\n<td>Minor storm<\/td>\n<td>K=5<\/td>\n<td>160 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 270 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFC800\"><\/td>\n<td>Moderate storm<\/td>\n<td>K=6<\/td>\n<td>270 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 415 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF9600\"><\/td>\n<td>Strong storm<\/td>\n<td>K=7<\/td>\n<td>415 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 595 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF0000\"><\/td>\n<td>Severe storm<\/td>\n<td>K=8<\/td>\n<td>595 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 945 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#C80000\"><\/td>\n<td>Extreme storm<\/td>\n<td>K=9<\/td>\n<td>Rx \u2265 945 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align: center;font-weight: bold;margin-bottom: 0px\">Troms\u00f8<\/h4>\n<table style=\"width: 705px;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 18px;height: 235px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Colour<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Description<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Physical Measure<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Threshold<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#228B22\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"30%\">Quiet<\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\">K&lt;3<\/td>\n<td width=\"40%\">Rx &lt; 125 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CBE90C\"><\/td>\n<td>Disturbed<\/td>\n<td>K \u2053 3-4<\/td>\n<td>125 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 230 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#F6EB14\"><\/td>\n<td>Minor storm<\/td>\n<td>K=5<\/td>\n<td>230 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 375 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFC800\"><\/td>\n<td>Moderate storm<\/td>\n<td>K=6<\/td>\n<td>375 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 545 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF9600\"><\/td>\n<td>Strong storm<\/td>\n<td>K=7<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0545 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 750 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF0000\"><\/td>\n<td>Severe storm<\/td>\n<td>K=8<\/td>\n<td>750 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 1155 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#C80000\"><\/td>\n<td>Extreme storm<\/td>\n<td>K=9<\/td>\n<td>Rx \u2265 1155 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align: center;font-weight: bold;margin-bottom: 0px\">Domb\u00e5s<\/h4>\n<table style=\"width: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 18px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Colour<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Description<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Physical Measure<\/th>\n<th style=\"font-weight: normal\">Threshold<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#228B22\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"30%\">Quiet<\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\">K&lt;4<\/td>\n<td width=\"40%\">Rx &lt; 25 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CBE90C\"><\/td>\n<td>Disturbed<\/td>\n<td>K \u2053 4<\/td>\n<td>25 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 50 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#F6EB14\"><\/td>\n<td>Minor storm<\/td>\n<td>K=5<\/td>\n<td>50 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 115 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFC800\"><\/td>\n<td>Moderate storm<\/td>\n<td>K=6<\/td>\n<td>115 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 250 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF9600\"><\/td>\n<td>Strong storm<\/td>\n<td>K=7<\/td>\n<td>250 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 450 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#FF0000\"><\/td>\n<td>Severe storm<\/td>\n<td>K=8<\/td>\n<td>450 nT \u2264 Rx &lt; 845 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#C80000\"><\/td>\n<td>Extreme storm<\/td>\n<td>K=9<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0Rx \u2265 845 nT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>The corresponding provisional K-indices in last seven days<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 514px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/flux.phys.uit.no\/Kindice\/k_nal1a.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"514\" height=\"178\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Provisional K-index Ny-\u00c5lesund<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure style=\"width: 514px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/flux.phys.uit.no\/Kindice\/k_tro2a.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"514\" height=\"178\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Provisional K-index Troms\u00f8<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure style=\"width: 514px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/flux.phys.uit.no\/Kindice\/k_dob1a.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"514\" height=\"178\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Provisional K-index Domb\u00e5s<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Local Geomagnetic overview and 1 hour forecast is based on the the method developed by Watermann and Gleisner described in DMI Technical Report 06-18 (Geomagnetic Activity Forecast Service (GAFS) Final Project Report Vol. 1). The method uses time shifted solar wind data (IMF and velocity) from DISCOVR satellite at &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":527,"featured_media":0,"parent":90,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-877","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","column","threecol"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Summary and Forecast - Norwegian Centre for Space Weather (NOSWE)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/site.uit.no\/spaceweather\/data-and-products\/geomagnetic-conditions\/summary-and-forecast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Summary and Forecast - 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